Perth Land Sales Are Slowing. The 12-Month Trend Matters More Than One Bad Week

Vacant serviced residential lots and new homes in an outer Perth land estate

Kixstart Property Brief | Market Data

Perth land sales doubled from 13 to 26 in the latest weekly count. The rebound is small in transaction terms, and the revised 53-week series still shows a weaker recent run-rate. That points to softer activity, not a proven fall in land values.

When property data becomes dramatic, the first job is to slow the analysis down.

Perth’s vacant-land sales recently fell to 13, then doubled to 26 in the following week. The swing attracted attention because both results looked completely different from the strong land market Perth has experienced over the past two years.

But the useful question is not whether one week was bad.

It is whether the broader series is deteriorating.

Kixstart Property reconstructed the past 12 months of REIWA weekly land-sales activity from archived weekly market snapshots. Because REIWA revises transaction data as more information becomes available, the reconstructed counts should be treated as approximate rather than final settled-sales totals.

Even with that qualification, the trend is worth watching.

What the 12-month series shows

Across the current 53 weekly observations, the reconstructed average is approximately 63.6 vacant-land sales per week. The median is 61.

That annual average hides a large amount of week-to-week volatility. During the period, weekly activity ranged from very low holiday-period results to more than 120 transactions in some stronger weeks.

That means a single weekly number has very little analytical value on its own.

Rolling periods provide a better signal.

The first 26 weeks of the reconstructed series averaged about 71.2 land sales per week.
The latest 26 weeks averaged about 55.6.
The preceding 13-week period averaged about 61.7.
The latest 13 weeks averaged about 49.5.
The latest four weeks averaged about 37.8.

The latest 13-week run-rate is therefore roughly 20 per cent below the preceding 13 weeks.

That is materially different from saying one week was weak.

The recent slowdown is visible across a longer window.

What this does and does not prove

It proves that transaction activity has weakened relative to earlier periods in the reconstructed series.

It does not prove that land values have fallen.

Those two concepts are often blurred in property commentary.

A market can record fewer transactions while prices remain stable or continue rising. This can happen when vendors resist lower offers, available stock remains constrained, buyers pause because of borrowing costs or sentiment, or the mix of lots being released changes.

That distinction is especially important in Perth today.

REIWA’s current Perth Metro data still reports a rolling 12-month median land price of $440,000 for the period ending July 2026.

UDIA WA’s March-quarter Urban Development Index had the Perth greenfield median lot price at $424,025, following a 52 per cent increase over two years.

The methodologies differ, so the figures should not be treated as interchangeable. The important point is that the latest authoritative price evidence available to us does not show a broad Perth land-price collapse.

Sales often weaken before prices

A slowdown in transactions can still matter because property-market turning points often begin with behaviour rather than headline price falls.

A simplified sequence can look like this:

buyers become more cautious;
sales volumes fall;
stock begins to accumulate;
selling periods increase;
developers use incentives more aggressively;
and effective prices eventually soften if supply continues to outrun demand.

Perth’s current evidence fits the early part of that sequence better than the later part.

REIWA reported 7,076 Perth properties for sale in the week ending 16 August, more than double the level a year earlier. At the end of July, houses were taking a median 23 days to sell compared with 13 days a year earlier.

Those figures relate mainly to the established market, but they reinforce the broader point that buyer urgency has eased.

At the same time, the WA Government’s March-quarter lot-activity data show a substantial pipeline of residential approvals across the metropolitan area.

That pipeline does not mean Perth has excess land today. It does mean future absorption becomes more important if buyer demand continues to slow.

Why the next three months matter

Spring should provide a better test than one winter month.

If weekly land transactions recover toward the longer-run average while prices remain firm and newly released stages continue selling, the recent weakness may prove to be a temporary pause.

If the rolling average stays around 40 to 50 sales per week, available titled stock begins accumulating and incentives become more common, the evidence for a genuine market shift becomes stronger.

For buyers, that could eventually mean more time and negotiating power.

For developers, it creates a different issue. Falling sales volumes can weaken the assumptions behind a feasibility even before headline land prices fall.

A project purchased today still has to compete with future stock when it reaches completion.

The number we will watch

The latest headline weekly result did rebound sharply, from 13 sales to 26.

We still would not put much weight on that number by itself. The 26-sale week remains well below the 53-week average of about 63.6.

The more useful measure is the rolling trend.

Kixstart Property will be watching whether the four-week and 13-week averages recover, stabilise or continue to fall, and whether that shift begins to appear in effective land prices and developer behaviour.

The takeaway

Perth’s vacant-land market is showing a real slowdown in transaction activity.

That conclusion comes from the broader series, not from the 13-sale low or the 26-sale rebound.

There is still insufficient evidence to call the market a broad land-price downturn.

For now, the strongest description is simpler: buyer activity has softened, and the next phase of the market will depend on whether available supply begins to build faster than demand can absorb it.

Looking at land or a development opportunity?

If you are assessing a Perth property, vacant lot or small development opportunity, the market trend is only one part of the decision. Site constraints, end values, build costs and the likely buyer still need to stack up.

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Principal sources

This article provides general information only. It is not real estate, valuation, development, financial or investment advice. Market conditions and development outcomes vary. Obtain advice appropriate to the property and circumstances before acting.